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Episode 375 - Book Review - The Carbon Club
In this episode we discuss:
The Carbon Club by Marian Wilkinson
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Transcript
We need to talk about ideas, good ones and bad ones.
Speaker:We need to learn stuff about the world.
Speaker:We need an honest, intelligent, thought provoking and entertaining
Speaker:review of what the hell happened on this planet in the last seven days.
Speaker:We need to sit back and listen to the Iron Fist and the Velvet Glove.
Speaker:Well, we get the Iron Fist this time.
Speaker:No Velvet.
Speaker:Glove.
Speaker:You get Cho the tech guy.
Speaker:How are you Joe?
Speaker:I'm good.
Speaker:And we've got Paul, the Canberra guy.
Speaker:Paul from Canberra, greet from Country.
Speaker:There we go.
Speaker:So some of you'll be familiar with Paul already, who's grilled
Speaker:me over Indigenous matters.
Speaker:And tonight he's gonna apparently grill me over the book that we are
Speaker:doing as a review, which is The Carbon Club by Maryanne Wilkinson.
Speaker:So, so that's on the agenda for tonight.
Speaker:Something a bit different.
Speaker:I'm actually looking forward to seeing how this goes.
Speaker:And I think, Paul, you are keen not to just have me rabbit on about
Speaker:things, but rather chewing and froing and a a dialogue rather than
Speaker:a monologue, which is a good thing.
Speaker:So what, what's your plans for what we gonna do?
Speaker:Well, yeah, what's your plans here?
Speaker:What, how do you wanna approach this book, review, book club,
Speaker:whatever we're doing here.
Speaker:Well let me, let me ask you why that was on your book, your bookshelf or
Speaker:sort of to read list on the first place.
Speaker:A friend of mine, I was at a, funny enough, I go to dinner parties
Speaker:and it was at a dinner party.
Speaker:We're talking about stuff and he is, has worked in the environmental
Speaker:area and in the reef and stuff.
Speaker:He's recently retired but still does consulting work and.
Speaker:, we just talked about stuff and he said, oh, if you wanna know
Speaker:everything about Australia in terms of climate change and government
Speaker:policy, then read the Carbon Club.
Speaker:And so that's how I ended up getting it, was because of a
Speaker:recommendation from somebody deep in the industry who recommended it.
Speaker:Mm.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And, and I guess I can see that, you know, people, especially sort of people in the
Speaker:political side, reading that book and just seeing all of the, sort of the backroom
Speaker:stuff that was going on, you know, why did, why did Tony Abbott suddenly do this?
Speaker:Why did Corey Bernardi suddenly appear with this, you know,
Speaker:host, that sort of stuff?
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:So my friend is a scientist, so he was looking at it from a scientist just.
Speaker:. And the book demonstrates how the ugly sausage is made, I guess, and yeah, yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Curiously sorry, I just have to throw it a side note here.
Speaker:Because my partner so my partner works at the Museum of Australian
Speaker:Democracy, that old Parliament house.
Speaker:Right.
Speaker:And if you're, if you're, if you're ever down you know, drop in and, and say hi,
Speaker:and we might I'm sure we can arrange a vaccines back of, back of the house tour.
Speaker:But she was reading Judith Brett's book from the secret ballot
Speaker:to Democracy Sausage, right?
Speaker:Which is a history of how Australian democracy came to be.
Speaker:And she was reading, she was, she was reading this because , two
Speaker:chefs on SBS were interviewing her about democracy sausages.
Speaker:Oh, okay.
Speaker:Because that's a, because it's a cooking show and apparently that's like, yeah.
Speaker:Collecting the sausage on election day is Yes.
Speaker:So democracy, sausage.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And, and that, that prompted her to then buy a book titled in Part Democracy
Speaker:Sausage, which looks at the Oh, yeah.
Speaker:But she works at the Democracy Museum, you said?
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:So, okay.
Speaker:So she'd have a keen interest anyway, when would've thought, yes.
Speaker:She knows most of the, you know, at least the history and the people and
Speaker:so forth that went into it, so, okay.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:That's need to know.
Speaker:We, on my, that's definitely on my reading list next, because I just
Speaker:read the first like three pages and it was really interesting.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:Well, let's return back to this book.
Speaker:So before we do, before we get into the meat of it a bit, I have to say
Speaker:Just reading a book as opposed to reading articles is really valuable.
Speaker:Dear listener.
Speaker:I have to admit, like I've read quite a lot of books in the last
Speaker:seven years, over a hundred of 'em, and just in the last month or two
Speaker:I've probably got outta the habit.
Speaker:Yeah, probably post Christmas.
Speaker:Really?
Speaker:And because of this book review, I was forced to, geez, I better finish
Speaker:this book and , I'm gonna talk about it, which forced me to knuckle down.
Speaker:But you know what, as soon as I finished it, I was like, okay,
Speaker:I'm ready for my next book now.
Speaker:And it's like a lot of things, I think painting is the same in terms
Speaker:of like artistic painting where you just gotta do it and get into the
Speaker:bit of the groove and you keep going.
Speaker:And so if dear listener, you haven't read a book for a long time and you've
Speaker:just been reading articles they're like fast food fairy floss, and.
Speaker:A good book is just a good solid three course meal, and it's so much more in it.
Speaker:So yeah, if you're out of the habit of reading a book, try and force
Speaker:yourself through some mental trick of some sort to get back into it, because
Speaker:I think it is a very valuable thing to, yeah, to read a book as such.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. And, and I would also say the, you know, the, the way the chapters are laid out
Speaker:and the way I thought, the way that, you know, the topics were introduced and the
Speaker:people were introduced made it f like sort of, you could read a chapter and feel
Speaker:like you'd read an article and then you'd pick up the next chapter and go, okay,
Speaker:well now for the next three years, or, you know, now for a different take on that.
Speaker:So I was in interested, like, it's interesting that your, you found it More
Speaker:of a hard slog than reading an article.
Speaker:Yeah, it, it, it did take me a while to get into it because look, it is really a
Speaker:lot of facts of history running from John Howard through to Morrison of, of why
Speaker:the government and the opposition took the stances they did, and the policies
Speaker:they did and who were the players.
Speaker:And it really is a lot of names and a lot of people and a, and a timeline
Speaker:of, of people coming in and out.
Speaker:It's, there wasn't a lot of analysis of it, I guess.
Speaker:It was a case where you read all this and draw your own conclusions from it.
Speaker:And the stuff I've been reading usually has more of the author.
Speaker:Input of an opinion.
Speaker:Opinion.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And this was kind of really devoid of opinion.
Speaker:It was, here's the facts of what's happened and transpired and you'll
Speaker:draw your own conclusions from it.
Speaker:And so it was a bit different to what I would normally read in that sense, where
Speaker:people are trying to explain concepts more so than just running through history.
Speaker:And even the, the history books I read tend to try and put things in
Speaker:context and explain stuff a bit more.
Speaker:This was just a, a rundown, you know, at the end of the day, I'm not gonna say I
Speaker:would recommend this book to many people.
Speaker:I'd have to say . Yeah, because I was, I was gonna ask, did you find
Speaker:it just depressing to get through?
Speaker:Oh, it just brought up people like Howard and Abbott and Morrison, Corey Bernardi.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:People that we've been able to just.
Speaker:Discard and not have to deal with.
Speaker:And it's, yeah, it was good to go.
Speaker:Oh, that's right.
Speaker:Not an asshole.
Speaker:Right.
Speaker:. So it, it wasn't, yeah, It was a little bit depressing, but a little bit, and
Speaker:still fascinating the, the way things go.
Speaker:So, so let's, well, dear listener.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:It's, it, it starts with basically Howard in the Kyoto agreement and what Australia
Speaker:proposed to agree to and why, and then running through the different leaders of
Speaker:Kevin Rad, Julia Gillard, Rudd, again, Abbott, Turnbull Morrison, and just, and
Speaker:just how personalities and also lobby groups and relationships factored in,
Speaker:into into changing our, our position.
Speaker:So, well, it was also Brinksmanship and a lot of the early stuff.
Speaker:What do you mean by brinksmanship?
Speaker:So, so we've got an agreement and then Yeah.
Speaker:Everyone's ready to go in the next day and Australia goes, oh,
Speaker:actually we didn't mean that.
Speaker:Just, just the last minute.
Speaker:Oh, we, we need this much more to get it across the line and all the
Speaker:other countries going, what the fuck?
Speaker:Australia.
Speaker:All right, then just, just, yeah, you are inconsequential.
Speaker:Just have it, yeah.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:You wanna, should we start there?
Speaker:Should we start with Kyoto?
Speaker:Is that because that's where we're sort of Yeah, that's the beginning, isn't it?
Speaker:And it sets up really the rest of what happened because of the favors that
Speaker:Australia sort of got in that agreement.
Speaker:So, so sort of just briefly a ti allow me one tiny monologue
Speaker:or No, no, go right ahead.
Speaker:. Just to set things up, it's just, we are in 1997 and Howard's in
Speaker:charge and we've got you know, world leaders getting together in Kyoto.
Speaker:With the, with, you know, trying to strike a deal where everybody will at least make
Speaker:some commitments that we'll all agree to in order to reduce carbon emissions.
Speaker:And a lot of this stuff is, well, we'll only agree to X amount if we know that
Speaker:also the US and China and India are also gonna agree to these amounts.
Speaker:So people wouldn't just simply say, oh, no matter what happens,
Speaker:we'll reduce our emissions by 20%.
Speaker:Often was couched in, well, we'll agree to this amount, but of course if everybody
Speaker:else agrees to a larger amount, then we'll consider agreeing to that larger amount.
Speaker:So, it's not fair.
Speaker:Yeah, we don't wanna be left out and no.
Speaker:Well, and no one there was this real, especially with Australia, I
Speaker:feel there was this real view that, you know, we, but we can't be left.
Speaker:Worst off.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:We, we can't be made, no one should be made to suffer for, you
Speaker:know, to decide to reduce carbon emissions or something like that.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:So, so Kyoto was kind of the first where, where the countries got together.
Speaker:And when you look at the final agreement, most of the developed countries,
Speaker:the more wealthy countries agreed to reduce their emissions by around
Speaker:about 5% or 6% or something like that.
Speaker:That was a typical amount to reduce their emissions.
Speaker:So, this was from their 1990 levels.
Speaker:By 2012, they would limit their emissions.
Speaker:So that was a typical sort of, and each country is a little bit different, but
Speaker:Australia, Australia struck a deal that was extraordinarily generous to Australia,
Speaker:and it was a case of John Howard being, Quite obstinate about this and because he
Speaker:wasn't, he didn't call himself a climate change denier, but he certainly seemed
Speaker:to be skeptical to at some level and certainly just unwilling for Australia
Speaker:to, to pay any sort of economic price.
Speaker:So he didn't see it as the threat that other people did, or if he
Speaker:did, he, we didn't want Australia to pay sort of pay a share.
Speaker:He wonder how many of these religious types quite, yeah, except the
Speaker:science, but Jesus is coming back any day, so it doesn't matter.
Speaker:I'm not even sure if that matters to some people because like, it's
Speaker:not like the rapture needs to come.
Speaker:It's just that when I go, when I die, I'm going to go to heaven
Speaker:and then everything will be good.
Speaker:Yeah, I'm sure Scott Morrison would think that way.
Speaker:I don't know that.
Speaker:That John Howard was, was on the rapture sort of thinking when it comes
Speaker:to, I feel like Kevin Rogers more of a, a Christian than John Howard was.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:In, in practice.
Speaker:So anyway, the way the deal worked was that Australia instead of decreasing
Speaker:our emissions from 1990 to 2012 by say 5%, we struck an agreement where we
Speaker:were allowed to increase them by 8%.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And we were able to take into account in the 1990 levels that we
Speaker:had done a, a massive amount of land clearing, which of course had emitted
Speaker:a massive amount of carbon in 1990.
Speaker:And so, . And in the few years following that, because Kyoto is in 97, so between
Speaker:1990 and 97, we actually hadn't done much land clearing because of drought
Speaker:and rain and, and other factors that sort of prevented us from land clearing.
Speaker:So, so we had this huge 1990 carbon emission that overstated what
Speaker:our emissions were at that time.
Speaker:And then we had a natural period where we weren't doing land clearing.
Speaker:So we, we, we had this twofold advantage.
Speaker:We were allowed an 8% increase where everyone else is decreasing by 5%.
Speaker:And we were allowed this land clearing bonus, which meant it was just dead
Speaker:easy for us to agree to a target in 2012 of only an 8% increase.
Speaker:And this was sort of thrown on at the last minute as Joe was indicating.
Speaker:at the conference, and, and by the time people woke up to what Australia was
Speaker:doing, they were sort of a bit outraged.
Speaker:But America helped shuffle through that because we had helped
Speaker:America in the negotiations.
Speaker:So there was a bit of mutual back scratching there.
Speaker:It seemed that Australia had had assisted the USA and, and that the deal making
Speaker:George Bush senior, no, no, junior.
Speaker:Junior.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:97 would've been, no sorry.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:No, that was George Bush Jr.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:George W.
Speaker:Bush.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:W was at least there for 2001.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:2012 though was Julia Gillard and Barack Obama.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:So, yeah, so relationships through this have a lot to do with it.
Speaker:. So yeah, so John Howard with his wanting to basically just cozy up to America
Speaker:all the time you know, it comes through in, in the book that part of the reason
Speaker:of why he did things was because of, of the relationship with the usa.
Speaker:So you interrupt with a, with a question at any point or head of
Speaker:in direction you wanna go to Paul.
Speaker:So, this, this is, this is all good sort of background material.
Speaker:I think this Yeah.
Speaker:Good to set the scene for, for the listeners.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Sets the scene that we, we kick off with an incredibly generous, easy target, which
Speaker:is why you would've heard someone like Scott Morrison saying, oh, we're gonna
Speaker:meet our targets in, in a canto, right?
Speaker:Because they were ridiculous.
Speaker:A deal that nobody else got, which yeah.
Speaker:So that's, and and I really wondered at that point what other sort of
Speaker:opportunities or diplomatic problems we might have had, because basically
Speaker:we stepped on the rest of the world's toes by going through Kyoto that way.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:, you know, it, it's, it's obviously done it, it obviously did a huge
Speaker:amount of damage in the, the Pacific with the Pacific Islands.
Speaker:The not even, you know, Dutton and Angus Taylor and Morrison joking about,
Speaker:you know, the, them, you know, being underwater, the water, at least they don't
Speaker:have water lapping on their doorstep.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Just was just sort of the icing on the cake from what I can see.
Speaker:And then they wonder why, why these countries are willing to listen to China.
Speaker:But, you know, that's another matter.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:But, but in my, in my notes here, so in Kyoto, they, they're basically all agree,
Speaker:yeah, okay, there's what we're gonna do, but they then have to go back to their
Speaker:countries and pass legislation and get it through their different parliaments.
Speaker:So just reaching an agreement at Kyoto is one thing, but then getting it
Speaker:through their parliaments is another.
Speaker:So, what I have here in my notes is that in 2001 George Bush.
Speaker:So it's be junior, George W.
Speaker:Bush, I guess.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. He says that the USA is gonna pull out of Kyoto and in order to not
Speaker:look bad, George Bush needs an ally.
Speaker:And who's the ally who's gonna help?
Speaker:He's the ally little.
Speaker:It's John Howard and John Howard.
Speaker:I thought Johnny Howard makes a captain call and says, yeah, well
Speaker:we won't ratify Kyoto either.
Speaker:Did he actually public call it a captain's call at the time?
Speaker:Do you, do you remember?
Speaker:He didn't.
Speaker:But the public servant who's been largely interviewed in this book,
Speaker:I think his name is David Kemp.
Speaker:No, not David Kemp.
Speaker:No, no.
Speaker:He was the he was the new minister.
Speaker:There's a, there's a Beal I think was the Roger Beal I think was the, the public
Speaker:servant who's obviously been interviewed a lot and was heavily involved.
Speaker:And he basically said, he said, you know, that's a decision that
Speaker:that didn't go through cabinet to decide not to ratify Kyoto.
Speaker:There was no process.
Speaker:It was just John Howard just said, oh, well we're not gonna do it either.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And just announced it.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:So, yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:So this is the sort of where personalities and friendships and just
Speaker:have an enormous effect on, on policy.
Speaker:Hmm.
Speaker:I mean, what sort of democracy are we in when just one man makes these
Speaker:captains calls on such a vital thing?
Speaker:And well, also that's how it worked.
Speaker:And also one of the big things that I see in the background of like, yeah,
Speaker:that, that I think the carbon Club really reveals is Hugh Morgan and, and his role
Speaker:in basically bankrolling and making sure that other people bankrolled the whole.
Speaker:Climate denialism, climate skepticism, you know, the I p A, you know,
Speaker:all these people coming over.
Speaker:Did you, did you even know about Hugh Morgan before you read this?
Speaker:Yeah, I'd read it in sacred De Secular.
Speaker:He turns up a lot in that book as a Okay.
Speaker:As a player in religious stuff as well.
Speaker:, right?
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:So is he quite a religious man?
Speaker:He certainly was backing a lot of non-sec stuff at the time, so, okay.
Speaker:So he's a very conservative Yeah.
Speaker:Figure by the, by my reading then.
Speaker:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker:So, yeah, so Hugh Morgan and his sort of speechwriter mate, Ray Evans
Speaker:basically they're, they're outrage cuz he's, he's head of some mining company.
Speaker:I forget what the name of it was.
Speaker:And, and obviously yeah, against any sort of Emissions trading scheme.
Speaker:So they decide that they're going to work as hard as they can
Speaker:behind the scenes to, to, to get something like Kyoto not ratified.
Speaker:By the way, I guess the reason why Howard could make the captain's
Speaker:call was he knew that his government was full of people who didn't like
Speaker:the idea of Kyoto and that mm-hmm.
Speaker:his cabinet with it anyway.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:They weren't gonna be kicking up too much of a stink.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:So I guess he was just also a good point.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:He was just doing what he, what his cabinet probably would've done
Speaker:and saved the embarrassment of having to, to go through a process
Speaker:of, of justifying the decision.
Speaker:He just, he just did it as a mate of US president.
Speaker:Because, cuz I, the other thing that I see from the Howard
Speaker:years is I, it feels to me like.
Speaker:Like one of the things that the liberal party often said at the time is, oh,
Speaker:you know, the Austral, the Labor Party is full of factions and all that sort
Speaker:of stuff and, and you know, we are a broad church, but we all agree.
Speaker:And I actually wonder how much of that was John Howard Abs.
Speaker:You're basically having the Iron Fist behind, behind the scenes
Speaker:with really rigorous discipline on who was speaking, who was speaking
Speaker:out, who was allowed to say what.
Speaker:And like, you know, you could have some free reign, but you, none of
Speaker:those people ever crossed John Howard.
Speaker:Well, they'd got rid of the wets by that stage.
Speaker:They had the wets and the dries, and by the time John Howard took the reins, it
Speaker:didn't take long for basically them to drive out the so-called wets who were.
Speaker:, you sort of the moderates.
Speaker:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker:Moderate liberals.
Speaker:The sort of people who would be a teal candidate today
Speaker:is, is what was driven out.
Speaker:So the, the sort of parliament took on, or the party took on the mold
Speaker:that, that Howard was wanting there.
Speaker:So guys, like Peacock, for example, was a wet and Yeah, anybody who was a
Speaker:supporter of Peacock and when he fell over, then, you know, they'd all been
Speaker:identified as such how I knew her all they were, and yeah, in that battle.
Speaker:So he was able just to identify him and, and drive them out and Okay.
Speaker:They just didn't hang around anymore.
Speaker:So your, your take on that is, is is more that Howard just knew
Speaker:he had, like, everyone agreed.
Speaker:They were all in agreement.
Speaker:It wasn't, you know what, mostly coercion.
Speaker:Well, mostly in agreement.
Speaker:And you know what, it's, it's the ones who were the skeptics.
Speaker:Bit like, and they turn out to be all the Christians as well, don't they?
Speaker:In a sense, funnily enough.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And these, I, I I object to the word skeptic.
Speaker:I think denier is the correct term.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:skeptics suggests they change their mind, shown evidence, true deniers.
Speaker:But these people are the ones who are so rabid, vicious in their politics
Speaker:that they will sink the ship they're on rather than give an inch, whereas
Speaker:the others are kind of more reasonable.
Speaker:What deal can we cut here or whatever yet when it comes to say, freedom of
Speaker:religion stuff or when it comes to climate policy, these other people will
Speaker:die on these hills and they'll take everybody down with them if they have to.
Speaker:And so, so while there might have been factions and, and certainly
Speaker:Turnbull probably had some supporters, they're never as loud or as vocal and
Speaker:as vicious and just as, as, as Yeah.
Speaker:As, as what these other guys are, they, they are, their power is, is
Speaker:in disproportion to their numbers.
Speaker:So noisy I think is part of it.
Speaker:So yeah, probably factions there still, but different commitment because I,
Speaker:because I think now one of the things is, certainly one of the things we saw
Speaker:in, you know, the, the Morrison era in my, in my take was the, that the
Speaker:liberal party just started splintering.
Speaker:You know, you had the, you had the rabid religious people, you had the.
Speaker:The people who were, you know, quite happily you know, capitalist but
Speaker:weren't particularly religious and, you know, all these cracks started
Speaker:appearing where you know, Dave Sharma is trying to keep Wentworth and he's
Speaker:being undermined by other people who are trying to stir up anti-gay sentiment,
Speaker:sorry, anti anti-Jewish sentiment.
Speaker:Which was just, you know, to watch, watch people actively undermining people
Speaker:in their own party was just unreal.
Speaker:So, yeah.
Speaker:So I'm just really sort of fascinated by how I feel like this really gives
Speaker:us that view into a very determined, well organized group of people.
Speaker:Yeah, certainly the, the book certainly identifies who the players were, who
Speaker:were the deniers and what they did.
Speaker:other than, and in the liberal party, the US influence, yes.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:But, but, but within the Liberal National Party, it doesn't really deny,
Speaker:it doesn't really shine a light on many players who are actively pro Kyoto and
Speaker:pro doing something other than Turnbull, you know, name me one that comes to
Speaker:mind from the liberal nationals, who was a Turnbull supporter in all this.
Speaker:You know, I can't, who was backing them up?
Speaker:I can't think of any, and I can't remember the names very well.
Speaker:And I borrowed it from the library, so I don't actually have it here.
Speaker:It's, I can't refer to it.
Speaker:But there was the environment minister either under Howard or under, okay.
Speaker:There was Robert Hill.
Speaker:Robert Hill was initially under.
Speaker:Howard and he got replaced by David Kemp.
Speaker:And, and so Robert Hill was kind of middle of the road type.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Kemp was a denying skeptic.
Speaker:So I dunno, I, I didn't find too many names that I could think
Speaker:of that were working assiduously or anywhere near as hard as what
Speaker:the deniers were working Yeah.
Speaker:In, in the opposite way.
Speaker:It just seemed to be Turnbull on his own with a few quiet supporters
Speaker:who, who'd never really lifted the heads above the parapet that much.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Did you, do you feel like to Turnbull underestimated Tony Abbott then?
Speaker:Oh, I dunno.
Speaker:I mean, I, oh, Let's just, well, let's just make it a progression to get to
Speaker:Tony, to Turnbull then a little bit.
Speaker:Okay.
Speaker:So we just, we just sort of give a little bit more of a timeline where we've set up.
Speaker:Just interesting.
Speaker:So while while Howard said we are not going to ratify Kyoto, he did
Speaker:say, but we we're going to aim to meet our Kyoto target anyway, even
Speaker:though it won't be a binding thing.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:We won't have it in legislation, but Yeah.
Speaker:But we're just gonna, why not?
Speaker:We're just, we're just gonna do it anyway, so.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And what, as long as it doesn't get in the way of making money.
Speaker:Yes, exactly.
Speaker:But the problem was there is a sense in the community of people
Speaker:wanting things to be done.
Speaker:So Howard is finding himself in a position where an Abbott.
Speaker:As well found himself in this position as well, where okay.
Speaker:Their cabinet was quite happy with their decision.
Speaker:It would be becoming increasingly apparent that the rest of the community
Speaker:wasn't, which was causing a, an issue at, at the, in the popularity polls.
Speaker:Hmm.
Speaker:And it was interesting also throughout the book, they took about, while Hugh
Speaker:Morgan and various other ones in the business council were, you know, climate
Speaker:deniers, there was a real split in the business community because some of the
Speaker:leaders from BP and from, well, BHP B.
Speaker:Can't Yeah.
Speaker:Different leaders of some of the other companies were saying, well, hang
Speaker:on a minute, this is a real thing.
Speaker:We've gotta do something about it.
Speaker:And Hmm, yeah.
Speaker:I mean, I think in the us I, one of the oil companies, their internal
Speaker:scientists had basically said back in the seventies, Hey guys, this is a problem.
Speaker:We need to do something about it.
Speaker:and then they spent the next 20 years, 30 years denying the science
Speaker:and their own internal people had said, we've gotta get outta this.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And and from what I can hear, yeah, they've been trying to move to green
Speaker:energy in the background and, and fobbing off their carbon heavy to other people.
Speaker:So they've been talking it up whilst trying to sell it off.
Speaker:Hey Joe, you might need to turn on your air conditioning or shut down
Speaker:another app or two cuz you froze a little bit just during all that.
Speaker:So yeah.
Speaker:So just give your computer a rest Right.
Speaker:In some way.
Speaker:But I, I also, we, we had to backtrack, you're mentioning Hugh Morgan and and
Speaker:their activities with lobbying and stuff.
Speaker:And they intentionally used the USA tactics.
Speaker:And the USA tactics were to find scientists that were seemingly
Speaker:well credentialed who were climate change deniers and to.
Speaker:Give those people opportunities to speak and, and whatnot, and to cast
Speaker:doubt in people's mind as to whether this was a con by this, by the
Speaker:community, this climate change thing.
Speaker:So that was, yeah.
Speaker:At the very least tactic at, at the very least to pretend that there
Speaker:is, you know, it's not settled.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Correct.
Speaker:And, and this is something I wish I could find it, but I, I saw many,
Speaker:many years ago, a brilliant the denialists deck of playing cards.
Speaker:And it goes through all of the strategies that the tobacco industry used to prevent
Speaker:any progress on banning smoking from, you know, just denying the science to
Speaker:finding alternate, you know, , scientists withheld alternate views to funding
Speaker:research that suited them to actually just attacking the scientists, literally
Speaker:going after them and dragging their names through the, you know, through the papers
Speaker:and, and hounding them and, you know, threatening, threatening them physically.
Speaker:You, there's a book on a documentary, all of these valid tactics, merchants
Speaker:of Doubt by Naomi Esque and Eric Conway.
Speaker:And it's all about the players in the denial of tobacco causing cancer.
Speaker:Hmm.
Speaker:And how a lot of these major players were rolled out again to deny climate change.
Speaker:Mm.
Speaker:It's the same people and they said yes.
Speaker:They're one, one of the key ones was I think nasa Second
Speaker:World War was a physicist.
Speaker:and, and basically he was very anti-communist.
Speaker:And anything that was the government interfering with people's personal
Speaker:liberty was communism and, and therefore shouldn't be allowed.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And, and it was, it was very much the, the politics of the person was
Speaker:leading their attitude to the science.
Speaker:They're libertarian ideology basically.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And we've seeing that all again with vaccines, aren't we?
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Yeah, well, credentialed people.
Speaker:I don't know.
Speaker:Not so much like these guys are obviously paid by Hugh Morgan and others.
Speaker:You could see why from a financial point of view, they would be tempted.
Speaker:Although, although they were already in that camp.
Speaker:Absolutely.
Speaker:It's already crazy.
Speaker:I don't think these people are selling their souls for money.
Speaker:I think they honestly believe it.
Speaker:Yeah, and it's, well, I, where I, I think there's a midpoint between those
Speaker:two, which is that you might have some doubts and if someone comes along
Speaker:with the equivalent of 10, a 10 year ARC research grant to confirm your
Speaker:doubts and to conveniently go and, you know, get jetted around and give all
Speaker:these lovely talks and all that sort of stuff, then it's really easy to
Speaker:confirm what you already want to see.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Yep.
Speaker:And you end up hanging around with all these people all the time and you're
Speaker:in a little bubble, then it becomes very self confirming as to you're all
Speaker:on the same page cuz you're, you're in the same green rooms together.
Speaker:Go to conferences and talk and whatnot, so, yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Actually I'll just read a little bit what an emissions trading scheme
Speaker:is, or often called a cap and trade and put simply works like this, the
Speaker:government sets a target or a cap on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions.
Speaker:It allows a company covered by the scheme to emit and then issues them with only
Speaker:enough permits to meet this target.
Speaker:And companies include, in the scheme, must either buy permits or get free
Speaker:ones issued by the government to cover their emissions each year.
Speaker:That's the sort of rough idea of a, and that seems to be what the
Speaker:current government has decided to do, where they've named a bunch of
Speaker:industries and given them a target.
Speaker:So, we'll get onto that.
Speaker:But where was I here?
Speaker:Just again, on the timeline, we get up to.
Speaker:2007 and Howard appoints Malcolm Turnbull as environment minister
Speaker:probably for the optics, I think in trying to say to the public, oh look,
Speaker:we are trying to do something about it.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:Because look, we've got Malcolm here and he clearly cares about the environment.
Speaker:And so he is a successful businessman.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:So, and Howard at that time, just before the election agrees to an
Speaker:emissions trading scheme, but Kevin Rudd sort of matched everything that
Speaker:Howard was then offering, and Rudd was saying, we'll sign Kyoto as well.
Speaker:And so, so yeah, we get to basically Rudd defeats Howard,
Speaker:and on the first day that he's.
Speaker:Elected in charge.
Speaker:He ratifies Kyoto.
Speaker:So, yep.
Speaker:That's where we're at in the timeline of, of, of Kyoto.
Speaker:It's done and dusted, kind of, finally ratified when Rudd's there.
Speaker:So really interesting to see the parallel between Rod in 2007 mm.
Speaker:Promising everything that liberals would promise and saying, we are gonna do,
Speaker:we're gonna fix the thing you care about.
Speaker:And then as soon as he comes in doing the, you know, the, the thing that he really
Speaker:wanted to get done, and Albanese basically doing exactly the same thing in 2020.
Speaker:And what was that, that Albanese did?
Speaker:First thing he did was a combination of every time that Morrison would
Speaker:promise you know, tax relief or a Oh, I see, you know, a concession
Speaker:or, you know, something like that.
Speaker:Rud, sorry.
Speaker:Albanese would just say, yep, we'll do that.
Speaker:True.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:I see what you're saying.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:Didn't provide any conflict point.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:Which frustrated the hell outta Morrison.
Speaker:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker:As well, because Albanese and Rad, I think were prepared to, to promise things that
Speaker:Morrison was, was definitely cagey about.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:And then as soon as Albanese comes in, like literally in
Speaker:the speech, he just goes, yep.
Speaker:And by the way, we're, we're going to push through.
Speaker:We're, we're going to get, you know, the work done on the
Speaker:Uluru statement from the heart.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:Which, which was like, . So completely not an election issue.
Speaker:It just never even featured in the Alps election campaign at all.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:, right.
Speaker:And suddenly here we are.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Oh, it's an easy one for I just, I just felt like there were a lot of,
Speaker:you didn't, didn't see those parallels.
Speaker:No, no.
Speaker:I didn't have to admit, but you're right.
Speaker:I do see the parallel now that you point out Yes.
Speaker:In that he was Rudd was, Rudd was really, I'm just John
Speaker:Howard, but a fresher version.
Speaker:And you're sick of Howard.
Speaker:But you really Yeah, that's what he was offering.
Speaker:And in terms of policy, yeah.
Speaker:Labor and Albanese didn't offer a lot.
Speaker:They were just saying obviously these guys are scammers and you're sick of
Speaker:them, and we're obviously nicer guys, but without a whole heap of policy difference.
Speaker:Not even gonna change the tax rates that these guys have agreed to.
Speaker:So yeah, there is a, I'll give you that, a similarity there.
Speaker:It's all yeah.
Speaker:So we then move into sort of in terms of the, the argument, the debate, the
Speaker:campaign because it turns then into a reef versus coal sort of debate arises where,
Speaker:you know, before it was all just pain.
Speaker:It was, let's, let's just make people pay more for carbon.
Speaker:Let's make life difficult and let's potentially cost jobs.
Speaker:But the reef argument provides a different argument where people say, we love the
Speaker:reef, we want the reef and it's a choice.
Speaker:Coal or reef, which one do we want?
Speaker:That was a.
Speaker:Good argument for the environmentalist to sort of bring up both factually,
Speaker:but also as a debating argument.
Speaker:It's an appealing one.
Speaker:And as well, I thought the big feature there was that you could
Speaker:point to just how many jobs are in the Queensland tourism industry mm-hmm.
Speaker:and say, you might say there's like 10,000 coal miners, but there's a
Speaker:hundred thousand people that are making their living directly and
Speaker:directly off tourism in Queensland.
Speaker:That would lose it.
Speaker:And, and we were ultimately placed or ideally placed to be
Speaker:a hub for green energy research.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Had, had we got into solar, we could have been a leading research development
Speaker:place like California was and be selling the technology offshore and
Speaker:employing, God knows how many doing that.
Speaker:Hmm.
Speaker:Hmm.
Speaker:Rather being dinosaurs, digging up dinosaurs.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:It, and it's one of the sort of central conflicts, I think in this whole debate
Speaker:is the, in the whole sort of carbon club kind of thing is, is and is basically, you
Speaker:know, we could make money doing old things or we could make money doing new things.
Speaker:And I, I feel there's this very, where I really see this sort of divide happening
Speaker:is the people who already own the money, like the, the industries that
Speaker:are making the existing money are very much biased in keeping those going.
Speaker:And that's always the hard part.
Speaker:Yeah, sure.
Speaker:We could make.
Speaker:You know, billions out of fabricating solar panels or mm-hmm.
Speaker:You know, producing green hydrogen, but no one is doing that.
Speaker:And you know, and Hume Morgan isn't making any money out of it, and
Speaker:therefore he's absolutely against it.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:And that entrenched power in those traditional carbon emitting
Speaker:industries could only see downside from an emissions trading scheme.
Speaker:And, and that's the big problem is rather than the government going, all right,
Speaker:we're gonna have this migration here is funding for it, we're gonna increase
Speaker:the tax on digging a shit out of the ground, and we are going to subsidize
Speaker:new industry startups in green energy.
Speaker:There was too much vested interest controlling the political levers.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And, and you might think to yourself, well, okay, there's a
Speaker:split in the business council.
Speaker:There's all these other businesses that are wanting.
Speaker:To to recognize climate change and to do things about it.
Speaker:Why is a government so stubbornly choosing sides with, with the other guys?
Speaker:And one of the reasons is that Hugh, Hugh Morgan was in charge of the McCormack,
Speaker:I think it was McCormack Group, which was basically responsible for funding
Speaker:the liberal party MCC Voia group.
Speaker:No SIA was the group of skeptics that he organized, but That's right.
Speaker:It was let me just see here.
Speaker:He launched the La Laia group, but there's the Cormack Foundation.
Speaker:So Hugh Morgan was on the board of the Cormack Foundation, and it is
Speaker:a group that provides most of the money, I think, for the liberal party
Speaker:when it is running for an election.
Speaker:So, When Tony Abbott's gonna run for an election, it finds 3 million.
Speaker:When Malcolm Turnbull's gonna run for an election, it finds only 1.2 million.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And Malcolm Turnbull has to stump up his own 1.7, which incredible like that.
Speaker:That's one reason why the liberal party would side with them.
Speaker:And also there's a revolving door of staffers who work in those industries
Speaker:and then work in parliament and workers advisors and government and and outside.
Speaker:So they're quite, again, like the religious groups they're
Speaker:in, their tentacles are in there and they're more entrenched.
Speaker:Whereas I guess the solar farm people haven't had the chance to get their people
Speaker:so, Embedded into the halls of power as the older, traditional businesses have,
Speaker:I think is some of the explanation as to why they would choose that business
Speaker:group ahead of another business group, for example, which is where I think
Speaker:watching Twiggy Forest and Mike Cannon Brooks in various, you know, ventures
Speaker:has been really interesting because that is a, a, a meeting of the old and
Speaker:the new, and it's really hard to deny that Mike Cannon Brooks, you know,
Speaker:like is, it's probably worth more than people like Hugh Morgan now, you know?
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Yep.
Speaker:So, so where are we up to here?
Speaker:The, the next conference that comes up is in Bali.
Speaker:And in Bali.
Speaker:They're talking about, 25 to 40% reductions by 2020.
Speaker:And that's a figure that's scaring Rudd.
Speaker:And he doesn't want to commit to that if he can help it, because he just doesn't
Speaker:think he can get that through politically.
Speaker:So while he was in, while he was in opposition, he's all talk now he's
Speaker:in power and he's at a conference in Bali and they're saying, oh, you
Speaker:know, it'd be a really good idea, like 25 to 40% reduction by 2020.
Speaker:And Rudd tried to say, oh, you know what, we'll make it 60%, but by 2050 knowing
Speaker:full well that by 2050 he'll be long gone.
Speaker:It won't be his problem.
Speaker:Absolutely no need to be there.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:So he, he's trying to, you know, pull tricks like that.
Speaker:So barley, nothing was decided.
Speaker:And it's it's all a bit of a lead up.
Speaker:So, so Rudd then is trying to, fashion, some sort of emissions trading scheme.
Speaker:And Penny Wong is the minister.
Speaker:He doesn't wanna do a deal with the greens.
Speaker:He wants to do a deal with the liberals with Malcolm Turnbull.
Speaker:Hmm.
Speaker:As the opposition leader.
Speaker:And I think the reason he doesn't wanna do a deal with the greens is cause the
Speaker:greens would ask for too much and he would find he couldn't probably agree to it.
Speaker:He could feel he could get a more acceptable agreement
Speaker:with Malcolm Turnbull.
Speaker:Is that the feeling you had reading it?
Speaker:I got the feeling that rad felt much more under pressure from the big end of town.
Speaker:And, and it may have been as well, that the unions, the C F M E U and things
Speaker:like that, we, you know, were like, it, it, I, it's very hard to know.
Speaker:Who's, who's influenced by what unions in, in the Labor Party.
Speaker:But, you know, there's it, it wouldn't surprise me to, to learn at that point
Speaker:that the unions were, were strongly anti you know, resisting doing a lot
Speaker:of work, you know, work on things that would mean they'd lose jobs
Speaker:in coal mines and things like that.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:And power stations.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Yeah.
Speaker:So if I, the impression that I got was just that Rod really wanted to see a
Speaker:sort of a consensus form where everyone came to him and said, Kevin, we want 22%.
Speaker:And he'd go, okay, that's the decision.
Speaker:And it just wasn't ne was never gonna happen that way.
Speaker:Mm.
Speaker:Because they were always gonna fight tooth and nail the, the interest
Speaker:that it was working against.
Speaker:So in all of the negotiations with this cap and trade stuff and these
Speaker:permits, it's the case of the, the, the brown coal power stations in Victoria
Speaker:were basically sort of threatening and saying, well, we'll just shut down
Speaker:and you'll have, you'll have power blackouts and that's not gonna look good.
Speaker:So they were really threatened with having to offer those power companies
Speaker:School toilets over again, isn't it?
Speaker:It is.
Speaker:School toilets again.
Speaker:It is, it's, it is, but a much more money.
Speaker:Good analogy.
Speaker:Good analogy.
Speaker:Joe.
Speaker:It's Mother Celeste and the Goldman toilet block all over again.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:saying, we'll just shut it down and, So the Rudd is having to fashion an
Speaker:agreement where he's basically gonna give these power stations a lot of
Speaker:money to help them out for the first few years, or a lot of permits to help
Speaker:them out, free permits to help them out for the first year, few years.
Speaker:And the real pain won't kick in for a few years and they're having to make
Speaker:these concessions to these groups and it's they're not enjoying it, but
Speaker:they're figuring we've just gotta get a deal done of some sort of emissions
Speaker:trading scheme and we can tweak it later.
Speaker:But if we can just get something through the parliament, then
Speaker:we can always improve it later.
Speaker:Doesn't matter how ugly it is, but it's something is better than nothing.
Speaker:And yeah, that's the sort of dilemma they were in.
Speaker:Meanwhile, while they're, while they're trying to appease some
Speaker:of these groups, , you've got an enormous backlash coming from, well,
Speaker:you mentioned Corey Bernardi mm-hmm.
Speaker:As a leader in the arguments against or was a leading climate denier.
Speaker:Did you, I'd like, there's a good line in there about, he was like a cross between
Speaker:a financial advisor and a preacher, and, and his wife said, his wife said, we were
Speaker:fortunate in our marriage that, that both of us were in love with the same man.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:The classic line.
Speaker:That was a really good line.
Speaker:I hadn't heard that one before, but, yeah.
Speaker:So you got Corey Bernardi, who's been to America, done some training
Speaker:over there on the Tea Party style system of grassroots, rabble rousing.
Speaker:You've got the Institute of Public Affairs, you've got the Murdoch papers,
Speaker:you've got a lot of vested interest with a lot of money and a lot of entrenched
Speaker:power and a lot of reach in the media.
Speaker:Just kicking up a shit storm of suggesting that it's gonna cost us an enormous
Speaker:amount of money that the science has not settled and really making it difficult.
Speaker:Um hmm.
Speaker:But life wasn't meant to be easy.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:So, yeah.
Speaker:Thoughts on the media's role in all this gentleman with Alan Jones?
Speaker:Murdoch.
Speaker:Andrew Bolt, usual suspects.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Well that, that was the strange that, and Hugh Morgan felt like the strange
Speaker:constant throughout all of this.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Yes.
Speaker:Do you know the other constant?
Speaker:The other one who pops up in this, dear listener, the other name that pops up
Speaker:as supporting Corey Bernardi and Tony Abbott and all these people in their
Speaker:climate change denying Is George fucking Pell was also making, making speeches.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:He was a invited to this stuff.
Speaker:Yes, it's the Catholic church as well.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Very interesting.
Speaker:That was very interesting.
Speaker:I found that fascinating.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:I was reading that about the time of Pell's funeral and I was like, wow, that
Speaker:was , that was an interesting coincidence.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:So, so they're always looking towards what's the next goddamn
Speaker:meeting of the UN on climate change?
Speaker:And the next one is gonna be in Copenhagen.
Speaker:And so you've gotta try and figure out in advance what you
Speaker:can agree to at that meeting.
Speaker:And so Rudd was basically going to offer a 25% reduction, provided the USA
Speaker:and China agreed to something similar.
Speaker:And he, and he had to, Obama was now in, yes.
Speaker:Obama came in 2008.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:and he had to do that because China and India had basically told the rich
Speaker:countries, if you don't, guys don't agree to something like 25%, then when we are
Speaker:doing nothing, I'm not gonna do anything.
Speaker:So China and India have virtually forced countries like Australia to
Speaker:put up a, a proper reduction figure.
Speaker:Otherwise, Copenhagen was gonna be, nothing was gonna happen.
Speaker:So if Rudd wanted something, they're more or less told by China and
Speaker:India, what would be a starting point before they would begin negotiations.
Speaker:So that was interesting.
Speaker:Which, which was also like, you know, the, the other side of what
Speaker:you said there is important that they were saying, we will sign on, but
Speaker:you guys have to sign, sign it too.
Speaker:We're, we are not going.
Speaker:Sign up and let Australia still slack off on nothing.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Because we've seen him do it before at Kyoto.
Speaker:Enough form.
Speaker:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker:The other part about all this of course is, you know, and I strike this, I can
Speaker:remember with right wing Tony, I think I had this argument was you know, the
Speaker:developing world has an argument when they say, well, we're making all of your stuff
Speaker:here in our factories, and you want us to have emissions at your level where you
Speaker:are now developed serviced industry based economies where the manufacturing economy,
Speaker:you guys had all the benefits of cranking out carbon to create where you are now and
Speaker:you want to deny us the chance to do it.
Speaker:You're not gonna recognize the value you got from your previous
Speaker:carbon emissions and, and Mm.
Speaker:And our chance to do that.
Speaker:and also the fact that we are doing your burning on your behalf because Right.
Speaker:We're making all this shit and it's so disingenuous.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:When people on the west say, oh, well, you know, whatever we do,
Speaker:China needs to do exactly the same.
Speaker:Like, not when they're doing the world's manufacturing.
Speaker:I don't think that's a reasonable approach.
Speaker:Well, and, and I think the, this is where the, that idea of this, you know, scope
Speaker:one, two, and three emissions really comes in because at that point, it's not good
Speaker:enough for a company to say, you know, the only thing we, you know, expanded
Speaker:in the t in, in having this t-shirt is the energy that we put in in our office.
Speaker:it's gotta include where the, you know, where that cotton came from,
Speaker:how it was processed, how all of that in, all of the energy and all
Speaker:of the fuel that went into that.
Speaker:I, you know, where, where, I guess I see where I'm really interested
Speaker:in your sort of view on this is that it's kind of come, to, come
Speaker:back to that China and India point.
Speaker:All of this has, has to do with everyone has to take action in their
Speaker:own way and whether or not China is doing the same amount as Australia.
Speaker:Same percentage, same.
Speaker:You know, how some, you know, every, everyone's gonna have a different
Speaker:metric of how, how they measure.
Speaker:But no one gets to say, oh yeah, it's great that you are all
Speaker:doing that because we are not.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Yes.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:So you are also, your video is just pausing temporarily
Speaker:there, Paul, hopefully.
Speaker:Okay.
Speaker:You, I'm sure you've got super internet in Canberra there, so I'm watching
Speaker:the output, like the, and you're okay.
Speaker:Receive and send and it's well within.
Speaker:Okay, no worries.
Speaker:It might be just restrained, so, but we got you there.
Speaker:So that's all good.
Speaker:So just in the timeline, turn, Turnbull makes a trip to London,
Speaker:comes back really wanting to do a deal, really keen on climate.
Speaker:You might remember he came back from London all going home.
Speaker:He wanted to do a deal with Rudd and he was particularly worried
Speaker:about a double dissolution.
Speaker:He thought that would be a bad result for them.
Speaker:But in any event, he was very keen on doing something and his liberal
Speaker:party colleagues in the parliament were terrified at the prospect of it.
Speaker:So Tony Abbott took over, rolled Turnbull.
Speaker:And so essentially Turnbull really lost his leadership at that
Speaker:point because of climate change, cause of his keenness for it.
Speaker:That's essentially what cost him his job as opposition leader at that time.
Speaker:There was one other thing that I thought was left, actually left
Speaker:out of the book at that point.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. And that was that I recall hearing a a something about I think it was when
Speaker:one of the Yeah, it's a podcast anyway.
Speaker:That Rod, at some point in that lead up to the 20 20, 20 10 election had been really
Speaker:hammering Turnbull and really embarrassing him for not wanting to commit and not, you
Speaker:know, not being willing to, to, you know, accept what, you know, labor wanted to do.
Speaker:And Turnbull was already suffering a little bit of, you know, in the,
Speaker:of, in the in the polls negative popular, less popular in the polls.
Speaker:And that at particular Attack by Rad led to Tony Abbott challenging, but
Speaker:there was a particular circumstance where there were like five people that
Speaker:needed to be there that would've backed Turnbull that happened to be away.
Speaker:Okay.
Speaker:During the ballot.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And it challenge, yeah, like there was some question, I can't remember
Speaker:how it played out, but it was, it was something like, you know,
Speaker:it was, he only lost by one vote.
Speaker:Tony Abbott, basically Shanghai, those, those people and kept them away
Speaker:from the vote or something, you know?
Speaker:Ah, I think I might have read something like that.
Speaker:Like took him out and got 'em drunk somewhere or something.
Speaker:Maybe.
Speaker:Or, I dunno.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:I can't remember that.
Speaker:It was, that does sound vaguely familiar.
Speaker:Something like that.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And it, and it was, it was not just that.
Speaker:To, like Tony Abbott wasn't particularly popular either.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:But you're, you are right in, in on that particular issue.
Speaker:The, the conservatives were very afraid of Turnbull.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Yeah.
Speaker:They, if they, they maybe should have gone a bit easier on Turnbull, the Labor
Speaker:party in order to get something done, because he was clearly gonna be the most
Speaker:amenable, much easier deal with Yeah.
Speaker:Than any other potential leader that might have cropped up.
Speaker:So, so Abbott's in charge.
Speaker:There's a Copenhagen meeting, which is a dud.
Speaker:Nothing happens.
Speaker:It's a disaster.
Speaker:It's all about then trying to get some sort of agreement
Speaker:at the next one in Paris.
Speaker:Meanwhile, in Australia Rudd's facing Abbott, Abbott and Barnaby
Speaker:Joyce are just calling this great big tax, which is getting very
Speaker:good traction in the media and.
Speaker:His popularity is, is plummeting as well.
Speaker:He's dispirited, he drops the whole plan for emissions,
Speaker:trading scheme gives up on it.
Speaker:And that and that then triggers Gillard as making her challenge.
Speaker:So again, partly Rudd lost his leadership, partly because he dropped
Speaker:the ball when it came to pursuing this and kind of gave up on it.
Speaker:He was so dispirited.
Speaker:So Gillard comes in.
Speaker:That's one of many reasons cuz he was also an asshole and everyone
Speaker:hated him, but part of it as well.
Speaker:And that's where I guess I was interested because I, I felt there was a similarity
Speaker:in the way that Rudd and Turnbull.
Speaker:Seem that they're both business people.
Speaker:They've come from running small to medium sized businesses where the board
Speaker:can get around the table and agree and they know that the job is to agree.
Speaker:And so they get on and do things and then they come into politics and
Speaker:they expect things to work that way.
Speaker:And they're surprised when there's disagreement and you just have to say,
Speaker:okay, no, we are just going to go with 12% that, you know, yes, majority says this.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Did you sort of, did you feel that there was a sort of similarity in
Speaker:the way that both Turnbull and Rod were sort of flailing around looking
Speaker:for options there towards the end of their, you know, campaigns?
Speaker:Cer certainly just really, Turnbull was just.
Speaker:on this particular issue, just in the wrong party.
Speaker:Like he's just, he was just surrounded by people in his own party who just wanted
Speaker:nothing, didn't want any of this stuff.
Speaker:So they're happy to have him on other issues, but this one was just poisonous.
Speaker:So, you know, he came in from the, had he paid enough dues in the liberal party to
Speaker:really understand politics, probably not.
Speaker:Ru Rudd had spent a lot of time in the state Labor party.
Speaker:He worked for Wayne Goss, he'd been in, in and around the traps
Speaker:and knew how politics worked.
Speaker:So he had the experience.
Speaker:He probably was just, he should have known that.
Speaker:So full of arrogance.
Speaker:You know, we'll talk another time about, I've been.
Speaker:I just read this little excerpt again about China.
Speaker:Everything comes back to China, China, China.
Speaker:But , it, it, it was talking about what you have to do to get to the top of the
Speaker:tree in China, and it includes all of the leadership that's current and fast,
Speaker:is start at the bottom in charge of a little community, get to the top, become
Speaker:mayor of a town, run it successfully, then become in charge of a province,
Speaker:run it successfully, score goals, then get into the next level in charge of
Speaker:some industry, sector or other thing.
Speaker:Kick goals, get stuff done.
Speaker:By the time you reach the top, you are such a seasoned veteran of working
Speaker:a system and getting shit done.
Speaker:Whereas in say, the US system, a Donald Trump can just fly in from nowhere with
Speaker:zero political experience and . just an advantage again that the Chinese system
Speaker:basically creates some experts in, in dealing in government, cuz they've got a
Speaker:lot of experience by the time they've got to the top, which they may not necessarily
Speaker:have in the case of a Donald Trump.
Speaker:Although someone like Biden has obviously been in politics all of his
Speaker:life, so it's not always the case.
Speaker:But someone like Turnbull kind of parachuted in from the side.
Speaker:Someone like Boris Johnson was a journalist and whatnot.
Speaker:I mean, in the periphery and all while, and he was mayor.
Speaker:He was mayor of London.
Speaker:Yeah, maybe.
Speaker:So some of that is in there.
Speaker:So anyway, sort of Yeah, yeah.
Speaker:I'm, I'm with you on that general idea.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. I've heard another view of how, sort of, how the system works in China which
Speaker:is kind of like charts the same course.
Speaker:But involves basically knowing enough dirt on other people that if something
Speaker:looks like it's gonna go sour, you can backstab them before they backstab you.
Speaker:Right?
Speaker:And you just keep on doing that and basically saying, look, you might think
Speaker:you've got a bit of dirt on me, but I know much worse about you, and so we are going
Speaker:to get in just fine, aren't we partner?
Speaker:That's maybe a, an exaggerated take, but, you know.
Speaker:Yeah, that's, that's his since I got, yeah.
Speaker:So we've got Gillard has taken over and you, I did get like in a tough
Speaker:Parliament where she was having to work with the Crossbenches.
Speaker:She did get stuff done and she did get a, an scheme through and a deal was done.
Speaker:Ah, where carbon was gonna be $23 a ton.
Speaker:Now I mentioned before those brown coal power generators who are kicking up a
Speaker:fuss and saying, we'll all be ruined if we have to pay this sort of money.
Speaker:So initially the thought was well, we'll give was, was when there's a permit
Speaker:system, we will, we will give them some free permits for the first few years
Speaker:in order to get them through until they can make the necessary changes.
Speaker:So under the Gillard agreement though, in order to get it done, they basically
Speaker:gave cash upfront to these brown coal power generators in Victoria, like
Speaker:two years worth of cash upfront and give to them to say, here you are.
Speaker:Put that at the bank cuz you're gonna be spending money at $23 a ton
Speaker:in the submission trading scheme.
Speaker:Hmm.
Speaker:Well guess what?
Speaker:Gillard gets rolled at the election.
Speaker:Abbott wins first thing he does.
Speaker:Cancels the emissions trading scheme, and they get accused why they, and they
Speaker:get, and they get to keep the money and nobody asks them to return it.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:That's the part that, that's, that's how good the, the liberal party are
Speaker:at managing finances and transferring money outta the pockets of the
Speaker:taxpayers and into the pockets of Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Well, both of them labor in the first place handed the money over.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:, I mean, at that point it says in the book that the executives were just amazed that
Speaker:they'd been given the money in advance.
Speaker:So labor at fault for actually giving them the money in advance rather
Speaker:than giving them the tax credit.
Speaker:And then the liberals in a kind of a practice run for what happened with the
Speaker:with the COVID 19 you know, arrangements then just refused to, didn't even ask.
Speaker:For the money back and said, well, you're not paying this.
Speaker:We'll have that money back.
Speaker:Thanks very much.
Speaker:And again, the executives were amazed that they weren't even asked to refund it.
Speaker:But, but like I I, I assume to recall at that point as well, the coal executives
Speaker:knew that at that point they were going to roll out a massive attack campaign mm-hmm.
Speaker:even though they'd just taken the money.
Speaker:Right?
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:Did that Well, is that my, my memory?
Speaker:Remember that in the book?
Speaker:That sounds all right.
Speaker:Because Or was it for something else?
Speaker:No.
Speaker:Cuz Kevin got rolled because of the mining tax, but it wasn't cold tax.
Speaker:Hmm.
Speaker:Dunno.
Speaker:So, I don't remember what Gillard was, but obviously Abbott was
Speaker:complaining about the $400 roast Sunday roast or whatever it was.
Speaker:. Yeah.
Speaker:AB Abbott.
Speaker:Abbott.
Speaker:And you know, and you can see that real score from Corey be Bernardi of, keep
Speaker:your slogans simple and direct mm-hmm.
Speaker:and make it all about fear, you know?
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Yep.
Speaker:I'm, I ne I never got the whole, well, yeah.
Speaker:If you carry on using electricity like you currently do, you're
Speaker:gonna end up paying more money.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:, that's the whole point of the carbon tax is to make you use less
Speaker:electricity, but, but the whole point of politics is to be able to say
Speaker:to certain groups, except for you,
Speaker:Well, that's true.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And, and the other thing that always strikes me is sort of odd there is
Speaker:that that's also how capitalism works.
Speaker:Or that's, sorry, that's how markets work.
Speaker:No, absolutely.
Speaker:Prices.
Speaker:If something goes up in price, someone decides to make more of it or supply an
Speaker:alternative so that, They can make money.
Speaker:Right.
Speaker:And that cap, cap and trade is a, the, the price comes down again, cap.
Speaker:Cap and trade is the market way of regulation.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:It, it's, it, it's the it's the right wing way of introducing it.
Speaker:You, you don't tax you cap and trade and, and that way you are not as a
Speaker:government dictating what people do.
Speaker:You're letting the market decide.
Speaker:Mm sure.
Speaker:So, yeah.
Speaker:Interesting.
Speaker:You say it's not a tax because Gillard got in trouble cuz she said there'll
Speaker:be no carbon tax under my government.
Speaker:Oh, absolutely.
Speaker:And then, and then later on she said, well, I don't care
Speaker:if you call it a tax or not.
Speaker:And then they argued, well, a tax is something that you have to
Speaker:pay whether you like it or not.
Speaker:Whereas with this, if you rearrange the way you conduct things,
Speaker:you won't have to pay this fee.
Speaker:So anyway, that caused her political problems and we end up with a, and it was
Speaker:set up to be able to trade with Europe.
Speaker:So the whole point was that yes, Australian farmers who were
Speaker:creating carbon credits could sell 'em on a European market and
Speaker:get huge amounts of cash for it.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:Which nationals would be all for.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Nationals are not for farmers.
Speaker:They're for miners, aren't they?
Speaker:It looks like it.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:And again, there's this relationship between them.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:I, I, I tend to see the, the farmers as being more just pure
Speaker:conservative in that, you know, we don't want to change anything.
Speaker:We don't want to learn anything new.
Speaker:We just want things the way they used to be.
Speaker:And, you know, that suits farming because, You know, the theory is
Speaker:you just keep on doing what you, you've always been doing, right?
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:Anyway, I think farmers would disagree, but anyway, yeah.
Speaker:You know, I'm, I'm, I also think that that's where the National Party
Speaker:and the farmers partway, right?
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Yeah.
Speaker:I, I heard a story from somebody who was deeply involved in media dealing with
Speaker:farmers on a national program, and was often disgusted in how, how uninterested
Speaker:farmers were actually in new technology.
Speaker:And they kind of did, but it just, a majority of 'em, a lot
Speaker:of them, way too many of them just wanted to keep doing things.
Speaker:The white.
Speaker:But we'd digressed a little bit.
Speaker:So now we're at a position where we've got we've got gillard's
Speaker:let me just lost the election.
Speaker:Lost the election, right?
Speaker:Tony Abbott's come in.
Speaker:Tony Abbott's come in and is eating onions.
Speaker:. Yes.
Speaker:And remembering Australia's, I think it's absolutely worse in that video, is the
Speaker:way he's staring while he does it anyway.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And we've got basically where we had sort of John Howard and George Bush
Speaker:of the same mind, and that was great.
Speaker:And where Abbott was dealing with George Bush of the same mind.
Speaker:Great.
Speaker:But in comes Obama who clearly has a different climate change agenda.
Speaker:So from Abbott's point of view, it was, oh shit.
Speaker:Like now we're actually, rather than feeding off and helping each other
Speaker:USA and Australia in terms of battling against climate action, he now had
Speaker:Obama who on the face of it was.
Speaker:not gonna be helpful for what Abbott was wanting to do.
Speaker:And Obama ends up in Australia at an APEC conference and starts making noises about
Speaker:needing things to be done for climate change because they've got a, a bit of
Speaker:an eye towards Paris, which is looming and trying to work out what can the
Speaker:world agree to at the Paris Conference.
Speaker:And so, Abbott was basically told by his advisors that he could agree to a 26 20 8%
Speaker:reduction by 2030 from the 2005 baseline, and it wouldn't be too difficult.
Speaker:Okay, so he is basically told a 26 to 28% reduction.
Speaker:by 2030 from the 2005 baseline, which sounds like a reasonable figure of
Speaker:reduction and you sort of figure why would that not really be difficult?
Speaker:It sounds like it would be difficult.
Speaker:And the reason was that we had such a good deal from Kyoto.
Speaker:Remember, dear listener, in the first part of the conversation here, we described
Speaker:what a crazily good deal it was that we end up with meeting that Kyoto deal easily
Speaker:and exceeding it, thereby earning credits, which we could then apply the 2020 target
Speaker:that would make it easy to achieve.
Speaker:So that's why Abbott could do the sums and go, yep, well, because of such an
Speaker:easy Kyoto agreement, leftover credits.
Speaker:meant that that this figure for for Paris potentially was
Speaker:not gonna be too difficult.
Speaker:Mm.
Speaker:And and that's kind of what they entered in, you know, in the leading into Paris.
Speaker:They were sort of prepared to do that sort of figure, but for that
Speaker:sort of reason, coming back to that original crazily good Kyoto agreement.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Interesting.
Speaker:Yeah, and interesting to see as well the, the fact that both I seem to recall the
Speaker:newly minted Xing Ping was came to the G 20, was it the G 20 summit in Brisbane?
Speaker:Yeah, I think so.
Speaker:Obama and.
Speaker:She basically got up and said, well, we are doing something about climate
Speaker:change and here's, here's our proposals.
Speaker:And Abbott, who was hoping to be able to say we are not going to do anything about
Speaker:climate change because it's all fine.
Speaker:Thanks very much was forced to actually do something.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:And so he is forced to do something and then he was given the figures
Speaker:that said, well, we can get this, we can do this because it's actually
Speaker:not gonna be that hard for us because of a previously generous agreement.
Speaker:So, although I did read about the number of coal fired power stations that
Speaker:China has built in the last two years.
Speaker:Right.
Speaker:And I think it's something like five times the number that Australia
Speaker:is running at the moment they just built in the last two years.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:I'd heard.
Speaker:Slightly different take on that.
Speaker:In that it, that number basically included a whole bunch of things, like
Speaker:things, plants that have been approved but haven't actually started work.
Speaker:Plants that have been built but have no coal you know, things that
Speaker:aren't even connected to the grid.
Speaker:So I'm still, I dunno how much of that is actually burning coal and producing power.
Speaker:Right?
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:But it's still, it's still worrying, right?
Speaker:Yeah, absolutely.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And my notes just get a little bit shaky for the end part here.
Speaker:But basically Tony Abbott made the mistake of losing 30 poles in a row
Speaker:and deciding to Knight Prince Charles.
Speaker:No, it was, it prince Phillip wasn't it?
Speaker:Phil Greek.
Speaker:I mean, and that was enough for everyone to go, oh my goodness sake.
Speaker:So Turnbull comes back in.
Speaker:That's why I was, I was wondering because, because of that very specific
Speaker:language of captain's call that Abbott used there I wondered if that was like
Speaker:some internal liberal party jargon.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Might have became the jargon in since then when the Prime Minister was things.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:I mean, yeah.
Speaker:I mean it's incredible.
Speaker:What is a captain's call going to war is really almost is a captain's call.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:It's just crazy.
Speaker:So, tur came back in but didn't last long at the end of the day cuz he just ran into
Speaker:the same party full of climate skeptics.
Speaker:And even though he thought he had agreement from the from the party room
Speaker:Bernardi and others just worked in the background and knocked him off.
Speaker:And Morrison of course, who had gone into parliament holding a lump of coal
Speaker:and saying, don't be scared of this.
Speaker:Ended up being prime Minister in his place.
Speaker:And we also had the whole thing with the Galilee Basin in Queensland and
Speaker:Clive Palmer getting involved and Clive Palmer spending a shitload of money
Speaker:and directing preferences in Morrison's direction, which helped him get in.
Speaker:And obviously Clive Palmer owned a big coal potential coal
Speaker:area in that Galilee basin.
Speaker:And I didn't, I forgot to mention in the whole mix of that, that Gina Reinhardt of
Speaker:course got involved in it, in it as well.
Speaker:So, so the book is The Carbon Club and it's definitely a clubby atmosphere
Speaker:of entrenched old school money in fossil fuel industries with deep
Speaker:tentacles in the liberal party.
Speaker:Really directing the liberal party and just people in the liberal party by their
Speaker:nature being determined to favor that industry cuz that's the one they knew and
Speaker:loved and they didn't know and love the new solar industry that might crop up.
Speaker:They didn't know one loved the new tourism ventures that might come up.
Speaker:You wonder how Scotty felt with the solar panels on Carelli house?
Speaker:Well, yes, because Malcolm, Malcolm actually put solar panels on, didn't he?
Speaker:Right.
Speaker:The the, and the thing to remember and, and was a great comfort to me through a
Speaker:lot of that was that the a c t government.
Speaker:Has for a long time.
Speaker:Well, you know, I think it was before Turnbull even has done deals power
Speaker:purchasing agreements so that the a c t, all of the power going into
Speaker:the a c t is from renewable energy.
Speaker:Even when Joe Hockey was complaining about, you know, wind farms near Lake
Speaker:George, you know how ugly they were.
Speaker:It was like, well Joe, you can turn off your lights then because your office
Speaker:and everything that you do here in Canberra is powered by renewable energy.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:Speaking of solar panels on Jimmy Carter, I don't think has passed
Speaker:away yet, but he's in his final days it seems, and he had solar panels.
Speaker:Installed on the White House.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:and Ronald Reagan, late seventies.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:He, he got 'em installed because as soon as he got into power,
Speaker:Ronald Reagan hadn't taken off.
Speaker:Right.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:As you as, because there's nothing like the Republican Party for spite mm-hmm.
Speaker:. That's it.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Interesting.
Speaker:So, so that's a run, that's, you know, now we can talk more generally or, you know.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:But that's kind of the basics of the story of the book is a forensic rundown
Speaker:of that history in, in all of its detail.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:She doesn't spend a lot of time analyzing it.
Speaker:It's up to us to sort of draw all that out as conclusions from the facts.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. Yeah.
Speaker:And I, I guess, I think I'm interested to know whether you feel like that was.
Speaker:A good tactic to take when this, when the book was written, when it was still 2021,
Speaker:I think because the book doesn't cover it, it talks mentions very briefly that
Speaker:the, there's an election in 2022 for the federal government, but it doesn't make
Speaker:any real sort of attempt at speculation or look at policies of the upcoming labor.
Speaker:No, it doesn't government at that point.
Speaker:So do you think it, it, the book is actually trying to
Speaker:avoid controversy by doing that?
Speaker:No, I think, I think just the nature of this style of book, it
Speaker:sort of, she brought it right up to the present time of when it was,
Speaker:when she was and finished there.
Speaker:And yeah, because it wasn't a book that with any analysis really in that sense.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:I, I guess that's sort of what I'm overall wondering if, if you think it's good for a
Speaker:book like this, especially if it's trying to appeal to more than just, you know,
Speaker:the, the rabid climate change agrees.
Speaker:That to, to not pass judgment on some of these things to not deliberately
Speaker:criticize or, you know, because it's still possible to, I think, to read
Speaker:the, the book and come to the conclusion that these people are denying climate
Speaker:change and they, they're wrong.
Speaker:The science is out, is is in, and you know, they've been proven wrong.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:She doesn't spend any time on that.
Speaker:I mean, it's fine.
Speaker:I think she just achieved what she wanted to achieve in it and.
Speaker:You can't be all things to all people.
Speaker:That was the style of book she set out to do.
Speaker:I think she just set out to put on the record and account of what happened.
Speaker:And then people can argue about how do we avoid that or what should we do in future?
Speaker:But I think that's a fair enough objective that she achieved.
Speaker:The scientists have always said their job is not to set policy.
Speaker:Their job is to say, this is what's happening.
Speaker:This is our evidence for it.
Speaker:And you know, effectively this is what we need to do, reduce the
Speaker:amount of carbon we're emitting.
Speaker:How you go about reducing the amount of carbon is a policy decision,
Speaker:whether you tax it, whether you, I like I feel it's still a science
Speaker:decision because there's no point.
Speaker:Like you can't say, you know, pass a law that stops anyone
Speaker:from, you know, Emitting carbon.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:, you know, that's . Well, no, no.
Speaker:Can't disobey the law of physics.
Speaker:Right.
Speaker:You, you can pass a law that says it's a fineable or a jailable offense
Speaker:to emit carbon more than through standard respiration or whatever.
Speaker:Or that, you know, you, you can't burn fossil fuel.
Speaker:Sure, sure.
Speaker:So it's not for a scientist to say nuclear is better than solar, for instance.
Speaker:They can go, these are the costs of each.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:But at the end of the day, it stands at the government to
Speaker:go, we're gonna implement this.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:The thing that, from this book, the thing that strikes me is so much of this was
Speaker:that politics outweighing good policy.
Speaker:It wasn't mm-hmm.
Speaker:, it was always, what can we get away with?
Speaker:What can the other people allow us to do?
Speaker:We want to get to this point, but what.
Speaker:with all the other competing interests against us, what can
Speaker:we get away with successfully in juggling competing interests?
Speaker:Hmm.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:It, it was also always about short-term gain.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:It, it's not, you know, for the, we're gonna Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:We we're gonna fuck over the reef and long term this is gonna
Speaker:hurt Australia in a major way.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:If, if we can just kick this can down the road, we will.
Speaker:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker:And then things would crop up and say, well, no, you can't.
Speaker:Like, and things have been saying, you know, 82% change at the beginning of
Speaker:this would've been relatively painless.
Speaker:And now we've left it so long, we're gonna have to do a 80%
Speaker:change in a five year period.
Speaker:And the longer we leave it, the more painful the change.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:. . Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And it really strikes me that the, like the no, no one worse off policy that
Speaker:Howard started where, you know, they wouldn't agree to anything, which would
Speaker:mean that any company would lose money or be fined or, you know, taxpayers would
Speaker:be worse off because they were having to pay higher prices or anything like that.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:And I guess I'm, one thing I'm wondering is, do you think that
Speaker:is still alive in politics today?
Speaker:I, I think so.
Speaker:I mean, realistically in terms of building standards building
Speaker:standards here are laugh.
Speaker:com compared to Europe.
Speaker:You go to a house in Europe and you see how they build.
Speaker:Compared to here, we're building huge drafty houses, and then we
Speaker:are sticking great big fucking air conditioning units on it to cool it
Speaker:down in summer and heat it up in winter.
Speaker:Hmm.
Speaker:Rather than building sensible houses to the climate as, as someone who has
Speaker:a double glazed house retrofitted.
Speaker:I'm completely with you on that, . There you go.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:But yeah.
Speaker:As soon as there is a, you, you wanna run a new law that's going
Speaker:to apply negatively to some group.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:, you gotta be prepared to sell the story.
Speaker:Like Bill Shorten couldn't do it when it came to dividends.
Speaker:Negative minor group of, minor group of elderly pensioners who might have
Speaker:lost something in share was just crazy.
Speaker:That whole argument.
Speaker:And we've, we've seen, although successfully with the
Speaker:superannuation for people with amounts over 3 million, 2 million.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Where the government is successfully Oh, they're streaming now.
Speaker:Yes, but they're not succeeding, I think.
Speaker:Oh, I don't know.
Speaker:Yeah, because this is gonna affect up to 50% of taxpayers if, if
Speaker:it's not index linked by Yeah.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:2,500.
Speaker:That's right.
Speaker:That is, you're right.
Speaker:Like Yeah, they're saying by 20, by 20, 50, 10% of people,
Speaker:it'll be affected by this.
Speaker:Like, say, and, and of course nobody between now and then
Speaker:will have the opportunity to index it if we don't do it now.
Speaker:You're right.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:I mean, they're howling like Banes, but and, and I, and I.
Speaker:, if I, if the news story that you're talking about is the one
Speaker:I've seen the assumption about the rate of tax, of, of wage rise.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:for ordinary Australians is just heroic , right?
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:So, yeah, it's not easy to pass a law that will negatively affect a particular
Speaker:segment of the community because the people on the opposition party will adopt
Speaker:that group as their own and just run a scare campaign and, and beat it up.
Speaker:So that's politics, isn't it?
Speaker:So, well, and, and, or, or will.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:You will pretend that these new taxes, these new laws will impact the, the
Speaker:average person when generally they don't.
Speaker:They're aimed at a very specific sector of society.
Speaker:Who do rather nicely.
Speaker:Thank you very much.
Speaker:Out of the taxpayers.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And, and another parallel that I saw with the two superannuation arguments,
Speaker:back to some of the stuff that, you know, people like Corey, Ben Bernardi
Speaker:or Tony Abbott with the $400 roasts were saying is that, you know, I remember
Speaker:very clearly in the 2019 election where, or the, the liberal party were suddenly
Speaker:experts on Labor party policy and they were telling people that the Labor
Speaker:Party was gonna introduce a death tax.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:And it was complete fabrication, like a utterly untrue, again, an inheritance tax
Speaker:is the norm in most parts of the world.
Speaker:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker:That and, and I, and they succeeded there.
Speaker:And, you know, you can see them trying now to say, you know, what's next?
Speaker:Taxing your own, you know, the, your home for superannuation which
Speaker:is again, completely made up.
Speaker:Not a labor policy at all.
Speaker:But, so I'm really, I'm really wondering where are we ever going to see a, a, a
Speaker:move in any sort of federal government or state government that, that does
Speaker:more than effect, like 0.05 of, or, you know, 0.5 of a percent of people?
Speaker:Well, there's such a gutless mob in charge.
Speaker:I dunno that we will, I mean, they really have to take the view that,
Speaker:look, why are we worried that we're jumping through all these hoops
Speaker:not to offend this small group.
Speaker:Because even if we jump through these hoops, the Murdoch press will still.
Speaker:Just make absolutely a complete lie to say that we've done outrageous things,
Speaker:so we might as well do some things because they'll make it up anyway.
Speaker:So, so let's at least get something done.
Speaker:I, I think the R r t though had them running scared Mr.
Speaker:The what?
Speaker:The, the minerals resource Rent tax, yes.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:So the mining tax, yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Which rolled Kevin Rudd.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:The reason.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And, and unless the average person was not impacted in, in any way, shape, or form,
Speaker:why the hell were the voters going, oh, we're really worried about the mining tax.
Speaker:Hmm.
Speaker:Well, there, I think, and again, it's interesting to see how, you know,
Speaker:things like the, the boss of B H P changing sides on this in, in the book
Speaker:has really influenced some of this, the, the, the Mineral Minerals Council.
Speaker:I think was the big player in the, the, the tax there and sorry,
Speaker:in the attack on the M O R T.
Speaker:And the thing that I recall strongly there was basically something that
Speaker:came out of that was that they basically said we are going to pass
Speaker:this on to every single supplier.
Speaker:We are not going to pay it out of our PO pockets.
Speaker:We are going to make sure our profits stay the same and we are
Speaker:just gonna pass that down the line.
Speaker:In other words, blackmail.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:So I'm, what else you got?
Speaker:What else you got on your list there of questions?
Speaker:Sure.
Speaker:You need to think about wrapping this up and bring it back to this book.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:What are the, the compelling ones?
Speaker:So do you think that people like Corey Ban Bernardi are still big players?
Speaker:Has he lost his seat or is he still in, out there somewhere?
Speaker:I think he lost his seat.
Speaker:Corey Bernardi.
Speaker:Yeah, I think he's out because he left the, he actually left the liberal party.
Speaker:He set up because it wasn't right wing enough for him.
Speaker:Conservative party, didn't he?
Speaker:Or the Yes.
Speaker:Yeah, he left the liberals, you're right.
Speaker:Created his own conservative party.
Speaker:So, but, but had he stayed in the liberal party, it, it would just becoming
Speaker:more and more comfortable for him.
Speaker:I mean, there was only an article former the other day, just the other day about
Speaker:Christian group telling Christians to hurry up and get into the liberal party
Speaker:so we could get more of us in here.
Speaker:So, so if he was still there he would be even more comfortable given the nature
Speaker:of the way the liberal party's changing.
Speaker:So it, there's no relationship to what it needs to be in terms of climate change.
Speaker:They're just going harder to climate denial.
Speaker:It's not shifting them.
Speaker:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker:Which I'm, I'm waiting for that to collide at some point with the
Speaker:idea that they're actually supposed to be speaking for the forgotten
Speaker:Australians, you know, whoever they are.
Speaker:But, you know, he, he sold a quote with Mr.
Speaker:Potato asking how one of the teals run for Prime ministership was, to which he
Speaker:replied, I'll be there before you are.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:, Monique Ryan.
Speaker:Some, somebody is selling t-shirts of that, right?
Speaker:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker:I have, I have my sit down Buffhead Al Anthony Albanese mug Rocky.
Speaker:There you go.
Speaker:Right.
Speaker:I'm, I'm, I'm debating getting that Monique Ryan t-shirt for me.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:Because of course he's my local member.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:So I, I, I figured I could turn up to various events in the neighborhood.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:Wearing it.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:See you.
Speaker:That case.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:What else is on your list there, Paul?
Speaker:Any other?
Speaker:Sure.
Speaker:So the, do you think Kevin Rudd did the right thing or the wrong
Speaker:thing by trying to compromise?
Speaker:Should he have appease the greens or the liberals?
Speaker:He, I don't understand why he didn't keep going.
Speaker:I mean, he, I think he should've, I think he should've run it, but
Speaker:I, I don't, I don't understand that with the, with the greens.
Speaker:I dunno why I, I think he, I think he should've, I just dunno why.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:I, like, I, I got the impression suddenly I remember this in, you know, 2010 that.
Speaker:He, he was desperately looking for something to make him popular and
Speaker:Tony Abbott was running the anti, you know, the, the Dump Kyoto line.
Speaker:So I better do that too.
Speaker:It was a, it was a failed project.
Speaker:But yeah, it, it's, it's interesting to sort of think of that sort of alternate
Speaker:reality in which rad had supported Turnbull in and Turnbull had felt like he
Speaker:could back rad with signing onto Kyoto.
Speaker:The Greens go, well, you know, we are unhappy that it's not enough,
Speaker:but okay, well now it's law will try to change it or improve it.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:You know, . Yeah, I dunno.
Speaker:I mean, it's easy.
Speaker:He was just, you know, you have to say there's so much
Speaker:traction by those lobby groups.
Speaker:that was basically casting doubt in the public's mind and he couldn't sell it.
Speaker:So, he, he, I think it's gen, you know, he lost a lot of poles, so,
Speaker:the polls were shot before him, so I guess he looked at it and if you're
Speaker:outta power, you can't do anything.
Speaker:So.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:It's not, wasn't he, I mean, not easy.
Speaker:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker:And speaking of sort of polls and that sort of thing and, you know,
Speaker:the media, you know, working against him cuz you know, the Australian
Speaker:was absolutely against Kevin, Kevin Rudd right from the start.
Speaker:I guess one of the big things that I think, you know, from the very title
Speaker:that you get that aspect of this being a club that is very exclusive and does not
Speaker:tell anyone about what it's doing it's.
Speaker:And, and did that sort of, did it surprise you to see how many people were involved
Speaker:in these things behind the scenes?
Speaker:No, it just reminds me of Christians.
Speaker:It honestly just reminds me Yes.
Speaker:Of Christians.
Speaker:It's so similar vested interest.
Speaker:Yep.
Speaker:And just the, and the speakers extreme motivation and the willingness
Speaker:to just blow up the party if they don't get what they want.
Speaker:Reminds me entirely of that.
Speaker:And while they might have slight differences of opinion, they will come
Speaker:together on an issue and, and yeah.
Speaker:So no, doesn't surprise me.
Speaker:Reminds me a lot of what, where do you see the Carbon Club still being around?
Speaker:Oh, it will, in terms of the parliamentary guys, they're not going anywhere.
Speaker:Let's think about it.
Speaker:A new, a new Pentecostal guy is pre-selected in somewhere in a suburb.
Speaker:And for the liberal party or for the nationals, he's, he's just gonna be in
Speaker:a soup that says, well, in our group we are cl climate change deniers,
Speaker:and we are pro coal and pro business.
Speaker:And he's just going to maintain that line.
Speaker:So I think the new ones who get pre-selected will, will, and, and you
Speaker:look at it and you go, well, that's not gonna help you win a, an election.
Speaker:And it won't.
Speaker:And they will form some rump of some crazy thing.
Speaker:And I'm convinced that the teals and people like them will end up having to
Speaker:form some new type of liberal party.
Speaker:These, these crazy Christian climate change deniers will end up in a poisoned,
Speaker:leftover section of, of a liberal party.
Speaker:So yeah, it's doomed to fail ultimately, but that's the direction
Speaker:not gonna change, I don't think.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:But what, just as a sort of interesting bit of speculation, and maybe my last
Speaker:question what do you think the alternate reality in that whole timeline, if,
Speaker:if one thing had changed, what do you think would be the most likely thing
Speaker:that could actually have ended up with a completely different future?
Speaker:Well, you know, it's hard to get, it's hard to get beyond these
Speaker:powerful interests and this, this powerful money and Murdoch.
Speaker:Working together, a different reality would've happened if Rupert Murdoch
Speaker:died of a heart attack in in 1980.
Speaker:When was in, when was, yeah.
Speaker:Don't, yeah, when can we, there's, there's a different reality.
Speaker:That would be before he had kids, he's 96, how, you know, Rupert Murdoch
Speaker:died, dies then, then there's a chance.
Speaker:But while he's still alive and working with these other people really hard,
Speaker:now that we've got the experience, now we've dealt with, like in those days
Speaker:you had these scientists who are from James Cook University or whatever, saying
Speaker:the reef's fine or whatever, and you go, well, gee, if a scientist says that
Speaker:maybe there is something going on here.
Speaker:Like, but now we've seen this often enough with tobacco, with
Speaker:climate change, with vaccines.
Speaker:We are now experienced enough with that trick, with living.
Speaker:We just.
Speaker:We just go, I'm smelling bullshit from some crackpot scientists here.
Speaker:I don't care that you seem to have decent credentials.
Speaker:You are one of them.
Speaker:So that, that maybe we've been through that often enough that if the same
Speaker:situation arise now we as a public could be smarter to identify it.
Speaker:But back then we were still babes when it came to, I, I wonder with
Speaker:Maggie, cuz Maggie understood and accepted human cause climate change.
Speaker:I wonder if she'd pushed harder, if she pushed Reagan harder.
Speaker:Whether, whether there would've been some movement, whether there would've
Speaker:been a conservative, market driven approach to migration away from
Speaker:carbon and onto other forms of energy.
Speaker:If she'd introduced a carbon tax in the, in the eighties.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker:If, if she pushed heavily for nuclear.
Speaker:as opposed to let's stop digging.
Speaker:I mean, she hated the coal miners.
Speaker:Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker:You know, I've heard conspiracy theories that climate change was all about
Speaker:Maggie trying to kill the coal miners.
Speaker:Right.
Speaker:and, and I feel like that whole determination, you know, her solution
Speaker:to that was just to break up the unions.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:And force them to work under the conditions that she wanted
Speaker:to them to, not to say, we are just gonna make you invalid.
Speaker:You know, useless.
Speaker:Because we are going to fund, you know, wind, solar, you know, other,
Speaker:you know, nuclear, other power sources and put you outta business.
Speaker:Your other alternative rally might have been tax on them if
Speaker:Al Gore had won that election.
Speaker:Yeah, there's another alternative reality where maybe that might have
Speaker:led us down a different path as well.
Speaker:Well, not that some people claim that he did win the election.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:and Florida was handed to him by a Supreme Court.
Speaker:That was if only he'd been declared by his and by his brother, Jeb Bush, who
Speaker:happened to run the voting comp voting machine company that happened to deliver
Speaker:the hanging chads or whatever they were.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:This is not gonna be another dominion, is it?
Speaker:, yeah's not hidden that way because that, that thing is proving to be an absolute
Speaker:goldmine of, oh, of the emails from Fox.
Speaker:Probably bad the route to Fox News people are mm-hmm.
Speaker:, I, I, I think that really is the smoking gun.
Speaker:Those emails that.
Speaker:saying, yeah, she's a complete crack pot, but we have to have her on,
Speaker:otherwise, o a n will have her on and then we'll lose market share.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And we'll say, we'll agree with everything she says.
Speaker:Yes.
Speaker:I mean, that was the other point, not, you know, that you can have
Speaker:them on and still disagree with them.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:, but yeah.
Speaker:You're, you're taking that view.
Speaker:Yeah, absolutely.
Speaker:No, I hadn't, hadn't thought of those, those, those points in the timeline.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:I, I reckon for me it would be if Rudd had kept Turnbull in as
Speaker:opposition leader hadn't opposed him.
Speaker:So, so determinedly such that his own party, you know,
Speaker:voted in abandoned though.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:Mm-hmm.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yes, but good thought experiment, so good question.
Speaker:Alright, well we're at it's been a while.
Speaker:We're, we're only coming up two hours an hour.
Speaker:50 minutes.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:So, alright, well I reckon So Shark, thanks.
Speaker:Closed back again.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:This Shay's Landon Hardbottom.
Speaker:I mean, I dunno why we associate with him.
Speaker:He's, he's clearly a dangerous man.
Speaker:He's a hard man.
Speaker:A Hardbottom, so.
Speaker:Alright, well, well you gotta do this again.
Speaker:You'll have to look through the Good Reads list there Paul, and pick another book
Speaker:saying, well, I was gonna suggest mm-hmm.
Speaker:the from the secret ballot to the democracy sausage.
Speaker:If you wanna take on that.
Speaker:It's not a big, it sounds a little bit too close to what we've just done.
Speaker:Okay, well, fair enough.
Speaker:That's fine.
Speaker:Through, for something different.
Speaker:Email me and we'll pick a, I still think gamer mates.
Speaker:A game of mates.
Speaker:Again, that's gonna be a little, that is about property development and,
Speaker:and it's still That's interesting.
Speaker:Government.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:Again, a little bit too close to the topic we've just done now, like something
Speaker:completely different would be good.
Speaker:I'll talk to Paul about it.
Speaker:We'll do it again in four weeks or five weeks or something like that.
Speaker:Cause that was fun to do.
Speaker:So yeah.
Speaker:Hope you enjoyed that.
Speaker:I did, I did enjoy that.
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:All dear listener, hope you enjoyed it.
Speaker:Hope you got your money's worth.
Speaker:Think I can hear the snoring from here.
Speaker:. No, there's still seven people with us.
Speaker:Weren't at times.
Speaker:Look at your podcast app.
Speaker:There's a link there for Patreon.
Speaker:If you wanna become a patron of the podcast, that's a good thing to do.
Speaker:Paul's won and he's never regretted it for a minute and consider
Speaker:the best value he is ever spent.
Speaker:, are you putting his brother Murray his mouth there?
Speaker:Yeah.
Speaker:And alright, well it's all very good.
Speaker:Thank you for listening.
Speaker:We'll be with you again next week with a wrap up of what's happened in the
Speaker:previous 14 days by the time we get there.
Speaker:So we'll talk to you then.
Speaker:Bye for now.
Speaker:Have a good one.